MLS week 7

[rolltide]

17-0-7 +32.80 (staked 77.30, +42.4%)
week 1 4-0 +15.70
week 2 5-1 +6.00
week 3 3-2 +6.55
week 4 0-3 -9.62
week 5 2-0 +8.50
week 6 3-1 +5.67

Will have two medium-sized picks for sure. Already bet this one so posting now...

DC United vs RBNY
- Nationally televised game on ESPN Sunday evening so I'm expecting an entertaining one. DC have the same problem as TFC which is they're creating a ton of chances but missing the net too often. They took a solid 18 shots last night but only put two on frame, took 22 in previous match vs New England (7 SOG) and took apart a solid FC Dallas defense for 17 shots with 9 on frame. They've given up double digit shots in each of last 4 matches including a combined 32 to New England and Montreal who i rate at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. No doubt RBNY's offense is clicking as they lead the league with 16 goals scored. Defensively they're really poor as only Montreal and Portland have allowed more goals and things getting even worse as Marquez will likely be suspended for the match and Conde still missing in center back. His replacement, Holgersson, is right now the worst starting center back in MLS and De Rosario will be making runs up the middle all evening. RBNY likely also without defender Miller and holding MF Tainio so will be looking to get into a shootout with DC. They played a 4 goal match in this fixture last year and I think we'll see both teams score for sure and likely a 4-5 goal match.

DC/RBNY over 2.5 3.5u -112 pinnacle

 

[rolltide]

Toronto vs Chicago
- this should be TFC's week to record a victory...i think. They sit as the only team without a point, 0-0-5, but have shown some spurts of playing very well including the 2H of last week's match vs CUSA. They really dominated portions of that game and certainly were all over CUSA in final 15'...pretty sure they still haven't figured out how the ball never went into the net despite at least 4 90%+ chances. One thing that is true is they've yet to play a full decent 90 minutes in league matches but really played to the best of their abilities against LA and Santos (home match) in Concacaf CL. Johnson, Koevermans, and Silva are very dangerous up front, Frings should return this week to produce a solid MF partnership with De Guzman, but the defense and keeper remain shaky. Chicago have tremendous speed on the wings so I'm certainly worried they will be flying by the TFC defense but the Fire were really outplayed in first away match of the season against an expansion club and don't have a great history at TFC either. Against fellow Eastern teams they've won just 2x on the road, 2-5-4, in past 11 and look to be a very average team and certainly not one that deserved to be road favorites. In their 4 games they've taken 47 shots (vs 46 allowed) with 18 on goal (vs 18 allowed). TFC have outshot their opponents 68-56 in their 5 games and produced 9 more corners (37 vs 28) which is remarkable for a team without a win, let alone without a single point. With Frings returning to the lineup they will be a much more composed team and if they can start getting more SOG (only 17 of 68 shots have been on target) the wins will come, starting Saturday.

TFC pk 4u +102 pinnacle/sbobet/12bet

also took a .5u on TFC 1H +220, RBNY o1.5 1H +200, and TFC straight win @+185 but those are not for records...nice value on each IMO

 

[readyfordeals]

any opinions about the games tonight

 

[rolltide]

TFC 2-3 -4u

nasty result, totally undeserved. can't believe equalizer never came as tfc launched 30 freaking shots. big loss

 

[rolltide]

DC United vs RBNY - add on
the more I dissect this game the more I like the bet so will add a bit to my initial stake. DC matches have seen an average of 33 shots per game which is very high in MLS and only Sporting KC average more SOG per game than the Red Bulls so you've got to expect a solid 10 good scoring chances in this one. Two defenders have been ruled out for RBNY (Miller and Conde) and DC will be without center back Jakovic so both will have issues to their already shaky defense. Add in the fact that NY's best holding midfielders, Tainio and Marquez, are now 100% out and I'm expecting a wide open game since DC have no quality in defensive midfield anyway. I'll risk another 2u on this and grabbed betcris' -120...got just about 6u staked now.

add DC/RBNY over 2.5 1.7u -120 betcris

 

[rolltide]

no readyfordeals i like nothing else this weekend. actually was considering a round robin draw parlay as I can see every match ending 1-1 tonight but right now haven't taken anything.

 

[SunDodger]

Tough to watch that Toronto loss. The goaltending errors on the 1st and 3rd goals allowed were pitiful. Thought for sure they would pull out a draw.



I can't believe Sporting KC is only pk -112 at Portland. If Los Angeles were 7-0-0 at Portland they would be -0.5 -130, if not higher. Sporting KC has covered the spread in every game they've played this season and have allowed only 2 goals in those 7 wins.

I've backed them a few times already, and feel like riding the hot team again in this one, as Portland have a history of giving up late goals.

rolltide, you said last week that Portland's defense was in disarray. Are they still in as bad of shape? I know you don't like to bet on road teams, but what is your opinion on this game?

 

[rolltide]

i rarely back an MLS team playing 3rd match in a week like KC is doing especially when b2b road games in pacific time zone especially with 7 regulars on the injury report. Portland...same 3 defenders that were out in LA are listed on injury report but now as questionable so you might want to wait for lineups to see if horst, wallace, and danso are out. so many guys on these injury reports i wouldn't make a play until i saw the lineup if i were you

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

i won't pretend to dare say i know dick about this league but there does seem to be an awful lot of scoring thus far in this evenings matches...
​

 

[rolltide]

here's the lineups...looks like sporting kc's injury list was like a bill belichek one...garbage

big edge for sporting kc tonight for sure

Perkins; Purdy, Mosquera, Brunner, Chabala; Nagbe, Jewsbury, Palmer, Chara; Perlaza, Boyd

Nielsen ; Myers, Collin, Besler, Sinovic; Cesar, Espinoza, Zusi; Kamara, Sapong, Convey

 

[SunDodger]

Thanks, rolltide.

I know the days rest favors Portland, but I just like betting on the power teams.

The line moved against me though, Sporting KC pk -125 for a small play.

 

[rolltide]

GL, nothing for me tonight. philly u2 came close to being a play but i skipped.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

i won some jagoff money at the track today, so for entertainment purposes to myself..threw 3 hundy each on the over 2 in the Dallas match...and over 2' in the Portland match....puttin my baby to sleep and chillin..just something to do...win or lose...cheers

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

impressive first goal by the brazilian lad for vancouver

 

[rolltide]

impressive first goal by the brazilian lad for vancouver

keep an eye on shea and loyd in red....both linked to EPL transfer in summer...#20 and #17 playing left midfield and right fullback

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

keep an eye on shea and loyd in red....both linked to EPL transfer in summer...#20 and #17 playing left midfield and right fullback

will do..any team in particular?

 

[rolltide]

shea trained with arsenal in november for a month and has been scouted by city, chelsea, and liverpool .... loyd just crap teams like bolton, blackburn, and i heard something about west ham. their center back #14 was bid on by blackburn last august but they never reached a deal.

wenger liked what he saw in shea so i'd guess gunners are most likely destination for him.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

kid shea definitely has speed....on a side note....not that you ever will but i now have my Bolton info guide here in the states...turns out, today i go to take a walk with my newborn and run into the father of a fellow footballer i played with back in the day...we get to talking and i ask what his boys are up and it seems his son is now head of player development in the US for Bolton Wanderers....

 

[SunDodger]

Now I see why you don't bet on teams with short rest vs. an opponent who is fully rested. Sporting KC was a step slow all night, but the own goal was brutal.


DC. United up 3-0 at halftime!! The over cashes early.

Thanks, rolltide. After yesterday, I needed this one.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

yes, good on ya....cheers